What's the Winning Formula?

With the World Cup just short of two weeks away rugby fans are nearing frothing point on the excitement scale. The apps have been downloaded, schedules stuck up on walls, sick days from work arranged and girlfriends broken up with in anticipation of this magnificent showpiece. Now all we do is wait. In the words of Gandalf the gay "it is the deep breath before the plunge".

New Zealand play host to the 2011 edition and are nothing short of desperate to emulate their 1987 success when  the tournament last visited their shores. The All Blacks have arguably entered each World Cup since as favourites and have failed on each occassion, reaching the final only once in 1995. The situation is no different this time round as the find themselves number one on the IRB rankings. Is their anything different, however, between now and before each of the last few World Cups? They have seemed unbeatable this year but Australia proved otherwise with a fantastic win last weekend. I discount the previous match against the Springboks because they truly did field a 'B' side. A 'B' side that most nations would happily accept as their best but not New Zealand.

One note of encouragement for Kiwi supporters is that they havent selected a fullback at outside centre. Mils Muliaina and Leon MacDonald have occupied the spot in past tournaments and the plan came unstuck. Conrad Smith is a deadly force in midfield and in the form Richard Kahui they have a more than adequate replacement. Their squad just looks too deadly. Graham Henry even had the nerve to leave out the likes of Hosea Gear and Sitiveni Siviviatu deeming them surplus to requirements. Wyatt Crockett; tipped as one the world's best scrummagers after his impressive Super 15 can't find a place with Henry opting for the more experienced Tony Woodschlong. I'm not too convinced with this decision but all we can do is wait and see.

The lineup that featured against Australia is likely to be largely unchanged when Henry picks his first-choice XV against Tonga with only potential changes being Ali Williams perhaps, Jerome Kaino for Adam Thomson and possibly a change at scrumhalf with Piri Weepu and Jimmy Cowan still vying for the number nine jersey. An unfortunate liability for the All Blacks could in fact be veteran fullback Mils Muliaina. The World Cup has come about a year too late for Mils who has struggled for form all year and really only gets a spot based on what the coach knows he can do, or rather what he has done in the past.I know in saying this Mils could rip it up and I could end up looking like a knob but I would still stick my neck out and go for Izzy Dagg at the back if it were up to me. The man has a tattoo on his back that says "Dagg". How can you not put him in the team?

The other point of controversy regards inside centre and the ominous Sonny Bill-Ma'a Nonu debate. It is no secret that Henry loves Nonu. I believe that old Grazie has yellow braids for arse hair and they spend their summers together on a secluded beach somwhere in the Pacific. That saying there is no denying that Nonu is a world class player and has developed tenfold under Henry's watchful eye and caressing hand. He has the experience that Sonny Bill lacks and the combination with Conrad Smith that does in the end justify his selection over rugby's new phenomenon. Despite this he will pose a terrifying figure coming off the bench and will probably get a start against the blind school team of the pool. In New Zealand's case they have two in the form of Japan and Canada. Expect big points in those with Sonny Bill and others like Dagg, Kahui and Guildford racking up the tries.

So returning to my earlier question; have the All Blacks a side, albeit packed with outstanding players, that can win the Wolrd Cup? The simple answer is yes. Home ground advantage is nothing to be sneezed at and New Zealand have one of the most impressive records at home. They have a team experienced in the right positions and in Dan Carter they have the world's best number 10. An area of potential concern is their tight five but in all honesty it is simply me picking nits. There are others, however, and their path to glory is obstructed by a number of exceptional teams. Over the course of the build up we will be having a look at some of these potential challengers and how they figure against the Kiwis.

Currie Cup 5 Week Review

With the expanded Super Rugby competition, Tri-Nations, and the impending World Cup rugby fans may be excused for not paying much attention to or care for the 2011 Currie Cup. Much rhetoric in rugby circles has adopted the line that the world's oldest rugby tournament has finally been made redundant. I would, however, certainly think that the fans huddled under the covers at Newlands on Friday evening, myself included, would beg to differ. I don't think those fans would have endured the torrential downpour just for the off chance of seeing Breyton doing a few flick-flacks or the DHL girls. Neither were they there to watch their team play in a tournament in which there is little remaining interest. They made the effort to support their team in the hopes that victory could help them along in their Currie Cup campaign. Despite the international scene taking predominance the Currie Cup still holds a great importance in the hearts of South African rugby fans.

This year's edition of die Currie Beker has offered no shortage of surprise. The Bulls find themselves sitting not so pretty at sixth, Province have struggled and currently hold fourth spot, the Pumas have proved not quite as horrible as in the past; but most surprising is the position of the Lions at the top of the log. Their Super Rugby campaign showed ambition, naive ambition but at least the will to try was present. Their expansive style of play came unstuck on most occasions but with a similar squad to the one that played Super Rugby they have done well so far winning all of their five fixtures. A cynic, a Sharks supporter or both will say that the Lions have played all of the three 'weaker' sides in their five wins but those still need beating. This was shown by the Sharks in their woeful loss away to the Griquas which is becoming far too much for a regularity for my liking.

Staying on the subject, Griquas have lived up to their reputation of being very difficult to beat, irrespective of who you are and how many disgraced Springboks you may have at your disposal after another PDV reshuffle. They have lost record breaking Bjorn Basson to the Bulls but have still managed more than decent performances each weak. The return of Sarel Pretorius will be nothing short of monumental for them as his style of play suits the more open stance Currie Cup matches tend to take. In past seasons they have fallen away as the stronger unions welcome back their Bok stars but this is unlikely in this year's competition due to the World Cup. Continuity, a bit of luck and continued use of whatever life-prolonging medication mascot Bushy uses could see them mount a serious challenge for a top four spot.

Seeing the Bulls struggle is always a pleasure and one their success in recent years has denied me. Sixth position, while well-below their expectations, is certainly better than stone last, where they found themselves two weeks ago. Their squad, unlike in the past, simply doesn't have the depth to deal with their absent Springboks and perhaps more worrying for them is the fact that a few of those players are gone for good. Their replacements don't seem quite up to scratch. Flip van der Merwve, whilst being a very good player cannot compete with Bakkies on a hate-inspiring level and I don't think that he, no matter how hard he tries, could ever reach the pinnacles of arseholeness that Bakkies has achieved. Who could be seen praising the Father one minute and then eye-gouging Luke Fitzgerald the next other than 'The Enforcer'? Their squad is what it is, however, and with injuries mounting the Bulls need to pull serious finger to avoid failing to reach the playoffs.

The Cheetahs and Western Province have been a little disappointing this season. Sias Ebersohn has failed to continue with his superb Super Rugby form and the injury to brother Robert in the early stages saw them struggle to get off in the ground. Province have also failed to produce the rugby we expect of them. Injuries in key positions has seen a number of new faces including young Demetri Catrakilis. The youngster helped UCT to their first Varsity Cup title earlier this year and has now been thrust onto the big stage following injuries to Lionel Cronje and Gazza van Arselicker. An impressive player for WP has been flanker Siya Kolisi. The big man has impressed so far and along with fellow youngsters, Tim Whitehead and Danie Poolman, Province do have a few things to look forward to.

The Leopards and the Pumas prop up the log, each with one win. Although they beat the Pumas two weeks ago, the Leopards have been quite poor and I struggle to see them preventing the Sharks from securing a five pointer this weekend. The Pumas on the other hand have proved more than useful and took the Bulls to the wire last time out.

Finally, we turn to the Sharks. The Durban side has gone along with their business quite casually and find themselves second on the table with one blemish, being the above-mentioned dogshow in Kimberley. Freddie Michalak has been superb in his second stint at Kings Park and new comers Sbu Sithole and Marcel Coetzee offer much-needed enthusiasm and endevour to a largely aging line-up. A well-shaped squad with a few young players coming through should see the Sharks continue on their good run and mount a serious defence of their title.

The matter really comes down to the fact there is no such thing as too much rugby. In terms of player fatigue there might be but with the Currie Cup sides playing non-Springboks it gives those who would otherwise not feature an opportunity to show themselves on a much higher level. Whilst perhaps being overshadowed by Test matches happening simultaneously interest in the Currie Cup is still thriving, and most certainly not dead. Aside from all that where else other than the Currie Cup do we still get to see the likes of Earl Rose still playing professional rugby? Seems to me like reason enough on its own.

PDivvy Magic

Comments and criticism of South Africa's much-ridiculed coach have been rife since his takeover of the World Cup winning Sprinboks at the back end of 2007. He is a journalist's best friend with his endless supply of confused and self-degrading comments. Who could forget such comments as “If I’m the weakest link then we are bloody strong. I’m a God-given talent. I am the best I can ever be. I know what I am and I don’t give a damn.” He has compared Ricky Januarie to a car mechanic, complemented Morgan Newman on his life-long form and developed a philosophy on the difference between winning losing: "you feel better after winning".  Along with all the comedy and facetiousness that accompanies this marvelous creature comes a rather disturbing fact: that he is the coach of our beloved Springboks!

If the above change in tone hasn't made it aware my affections toward Snor are finished and what remains is abuse and vilification. Complaints of his bizarre and uncoordinated tactics come around every time the test season approaches and last long into the domestic campaign. This may have something to do with being the time he opens his Tom Selleck-mimicking mouth and the concomitant flow of excrament. I think even Earl Rose would be starting this weekend if it finally hadn't made its way into Pieter's head that this would cause an uproar no short of London-scale rioting. His faith in Earl is topic enough for a separate, less lugubrious piece and shall be left at that.

Most coaches at professional level will profess to have some sort of plan for their team. If Pieter has one then it is to appear as planless as possible and if that be true does indeed deserve the medal that he feels he deserves. He has, however, seemed to recognise this and has adopted the adage 'if it aint broke then don't fix it'. The 'it' being the team that won the World Cup four years ago and he seems to be doing all that he can to replicate Jake White's winning formula. I think he is secretly praying that Os gets fired from the Cheetahs and in need of income announces his return to Springbok rugby. Unfortunatley for him, if not quite broke, a fair portion of our team is past its best and well-past their expiry dates. Iconoclasm! You  may shout (if you enjoy using verbose words like verbose like I do) and it does seem that Divvy has a host of supporters in this regard as any criticism of Smit, Matfield, Botha or Habana is deemed worthy of death for its articulator. At this stage it is probably too late to replace these guys but the lack of foresight on his behalf to do so at an earlier stage could prove very costly to our World Cup challenge.

The point has been well proven in the 2011 Tri-Nations. Let's forget about the Rustenberg, we're all injured oh no wait now we're all fine, camp for now. Since having his first choice Boks available for selection he has proceeded to act without so much as a clue in team selection so inconsistent the name 'The Tinkerer', affectionately given to former Chelsea manager Claudio Ranieri, would fall far short of the truth. Morne Steyn returns at flyhalf this week begging the question, given he picked him in the first place, what did Butch James do last week that warrants his exclusion this? We all knew he isn't the best goal kicker but he provided some momentum to our backline with  his excellent distribution skills and defended well. This is arguably why Steyn was dropped after the first test, as againts the Wallabies the Springbok backline was about as impotent as Hugh Hefner without his little blue pills. Butch came in and did what was expected. There is no logical reason why he should now be left out. I suppose it is because logic itself is left out in this case. Three number tens in three tests. Confidence in the Bok camp must be flying about now as we close in on the pinnacle of rugby competitions.

The most incredible change he has made has been the replacement of John Smit with Bismarck du Plessis. There is little doubt that the Business is the better player but is this a sign of the way things will play out in New Zealand in just under a months time? This may seem a fair conclusion but when PDivvy is the man making decisions then anything can happen. If Smit is fit enough to be on the bench then he he must be fine to start so the choice is tactical; so one thinks. Smitty has to captain the side at the World Cup. Changing that now would be foolish. Should Bismarck have been named starting hooker a year or eighteen months ago along with a new captain? Yes, probably, but that didn't happen. John Smit is our best captain but he will probably also be our best captain at the age of 40. Should he play then? I'd hate to know Div's answer to that.

On the whole it seems as though the Springboks are in a state of desperation. Three defeats from three in the Tri-Nations with the All Blacks up next, no real vision on team selection and game plan and the self-belief of Derrick Hougaard after taking that hit from Brian Lima. We applaud you Mr. De Villiers. Well done.

But don't worry Piet, you funny little man. You are forgiven because as you have said, despite all disbelief, "I'm not saying that I'm God".

(Please forgive the overuse of the exclamation mark. This man's comments are simply too ridiculous and if paraphrased would surely not be believed.)